Santa Clara
vs
Famalicao
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 55% Santa Clara, 26% draw, 19% Famalicao — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.63, Famalicao 0.87.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Santa Clara
No earlier matches on record this season.
Famalicao
- D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. Santa Clara has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Famalicao
- 18 January 2026Santa Clara 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 10 August 2025Famalicao 3–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 10 May 2025Santa Clara 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 30 December 2024Famalicao 1–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 24 November 2024Famalicao 0–1 Santa ClaraTaça de Portugal
- 19 February 2023Santa Clara 1–3 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Santa Clara
No league goals recorded yet.
Famalicao
- G. Koutsias1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santa Clara carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.75 for Famalicao. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Famalicao D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Santa Clara and 0.87 for Famalicao. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Clara rate 0.90 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Famalicao rate 0.76 and 0.96.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Santa Clara against 0.87 for Famalicao. Santa Clara's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/0.96 for Famalicao.