Spartak Varna
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia
The model makes it 43% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 28% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 1.57, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.05.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Spartak Varna wins, grey are draws, red are Lokomotiv Sofia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Varna at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 22 May 2026Spartak Varna 3–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 13 February 2026Spartak Varna 2–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 22 August 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 28 March 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 6 October 2024Spartak Varna 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 November 2023Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spartak Varna carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.18 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.05 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Varna rate 0.45 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.56 and 2.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 1.05 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.15 for Lokomotiv Sofia.