Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 27% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 44% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.95, CSKA Sofia 1.55.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins, grey are draws, red are CSKA Sofia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
- L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
- L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
- 20 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA SofiaCup
- 3 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 2 August 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 12 April 2025CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 2 November 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 May 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Lokomotiv Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.49 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.55 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.38 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.74 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 0% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 16.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 1.55 for CSKA Sofia. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.54 for CSKA Sofia.