Levski Sofia
vs
Ludogorets
First League prediction
Our model says: Levski Sofia 2–0 Ludogorets
The model makes it 52% Levski Sofia, 27% draw, 21% Ludogorets — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.98, Ludogorets 0.83.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Levski Sofia wins, grey are draws, red are Ludogorets wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
- W6-0Spartak Varna22 August 2026
Ludogorets
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 2 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
- 13 May 2026Ludogorets 1–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 9 May 2026Levski Sofia 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 5 March 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 11 February 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Levski SofiaCup
- 3 February 2026Levski Sofia 0–1 LudogoretsSuper Cup
- 19 September 2025Levski Sofia 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League
The two sides
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.34 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.83 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.78 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.56 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Levski Sofia a 69.7% chance of the title and Ludogorets 9.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.83 for Ludogorets. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.56 for Ludogorets.