Spartak Trnava
vs
Komárno
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Spartak Trnava 1–0 Komárno
The model makes it 62% Spartak Trnava, 24% draw, 14% Komárno — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Spartak Trnava 1.90, Komárno 0.64.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Spartak Trnava are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Spartak Trnava are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games; Komárno are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Spartak Trnava have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Slovan Bratislava.
- Komárno have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Ružomberok.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Trnava 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Komárno 1–2 Spartak Trnava.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spartak Trnava vs Komárno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Trnava at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spartak Trnava vs Komárno
Spartak Trnava
- L0-3Slovan Bratislava17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Podbrezová11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunajska Streda20 September 2026
- W5-2FK Košice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ružomberok6 September 2026
Komárno
- L0-1Ružomberok17 October 2026
- D1-1away to FK Košice10 October 2026
- L1-2Slovan Bratislava19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Podbrezová13 September 2026
- D0-0Skalica5 September 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Trnava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Trnava had three goals or more.
- Komárno did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Komárno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Komárno had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 21 |
| 12 | Komárno | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spartak Trnava
Chance to finish in the top four · 88% today
Komárno
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Spartak Trnava vs Komárno
- 2 August 2026Komárno 1–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 29 November 2025Spartak Trnava 2–0 KomárnoSuper Liga
- 24 August 2025Komárno 1–4 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 9 November 2024Komárno 1–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 30 October 2024Spartak Trnava 3–2 KomárnoSuper Liga
- 28 February 2023Komárno 0–2 Spartak TrnavaCup
The two sides
Spartak Trnava carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.19 for Komárno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Spartak Trnava and 0.64 for Komárno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Trnava rate 0.75 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Komárno rate 0.39 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Trnava a 3.7% chance of the title and Komárno 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Trnava the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Spartak Trnava against 0.64 for Komárno. Spartak Trnava's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.56 for Komárno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spartak Trnava at home · Komárno away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Spartak Trnava 10, Komárno 11.
Spartak Trnava score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Komárno have let in 2 there.
Komárno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Spartak Trnava have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Trnava
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 51%
- at Zemplín Michalovce21 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- vs AS Trencin28 Nov · Super Ligawin 67%
- at Žilina5 Dec · Super Ligawin 34%
Komárno
- vs Zemplín Michalovce8 Nov · Super Ligawin 36%
- at Dunajska Streda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 9%
- vs Žilina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica5 Dec · Super Ligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.