Dukla Banská Bystrica
vs
Podbrezová
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 Podbrezová
The model makes it 33% Dukla Banská Bystrica, 28% draw, 39% Podbrezová — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.34, Podbrezová 1.58.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Dukla Banská Bystrica are 9th on 7 points from 9 games; Podbrezová are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Zemplín Michalovce.
- Podbrezová have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Skalica.
- Last 6 meetings: Podbrezová 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 Podbrezová.
All Slovak Super Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Podbrezová
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbrezová at 39% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Podbrezová
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L0-1away to Zemplín Michalovce19 September 2026
- W3-2Skalica12 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Košice6 September 2026
- D2-2Komárno29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ružomberok22 August 2026
Podbrezová
- W1-0away to Skalica20 September 2026
- D1-1Komárno13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Žilina5 September 2026
- D2-2FK Košice29 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dunajska Streda22 August 2026
What these results say
- Dukla Banská Bystrica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Podbrezová
- 30 January 2026Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 PodbrezováFriendlies Clubs
- 18 January 2025Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–0 PodbrezováFriendlies Clubs
- 7 December 2024Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–2 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 31 August 2024Podbrezová 1–1 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 27 October 2023Podbrezová 2–2 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 28 July 2023Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–4 PodbrezováSuper Liga
The two sides
Dukla Banská Bystrica carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.34 for Podbrezová. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 1.58 for Podbrezová. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dukla Banská Bystrica rate 0.48 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Podbrezová rate 0.62 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dukla Banská Bystrica a 0% chance of the title and Podbrezová 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbrezová the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica against 1.58 for Podbrezová. Dukla Banská Bystrica's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for Podbrezová.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dukla Banská Bystrica at home · Podbrezová away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Dukla Banská Bystrica 9, Podbrezová 9.
Dukla Banská Bystrica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Podbrezová have let in 3 there.
Podbrezová score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Dukla Banská Bystrica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- at Slovan Bratislava24 Oct · Super Ligawin 13%
- vs Dunajska Streda1 Nov · Super Ligawin 20%
- vs Spartak Trnava7 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%
- at Žilina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
Podbrezová
- at Zemplín Michalovce24 Oct · Super Ligawin 31%
- vs Slovan Bratislava31 Oct · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Ružomberok8 Nov · Super Ligawin 51%
- at AS Trencin21 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.