Dynamo
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 77% Dynamo, 11% draw, 12% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.30, 9.09 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (6%).
Expected goals: Dynamo 4.24, Rodina Moskva 1.88.
Both teams to score: 84%. Over 2.5 goals: 94%, under 2.5: 6%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dynamo
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Baltika1 August 2026
- D0-0Krylia Sovetov25 July 2026
Rodina Moskva
- W2-1away to Zenit9 August 2026
- L2-4FC Rostov31 July 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.39 for Rodina Moskva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dynamo D-L-W; Rodina Moskva L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.24 goals for Dynamo and 1.88 for Rodina Moskva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo rate 0.87 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodina Moskva rate 0.88 and 2.58.
That points to 94% for over two and a half goals and 84% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-1 (6%), 3-1 (5%), 4-2 (5%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.24 expected goals for Dynamo against 1.88 for Rodina Moskva. Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/2.58 for Rodina Moskva.