Rodina Moskva vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Rodina Moskva 0-3 Baltika.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Rodina Moskva, 24% draw, 43% Baltika — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs Baltika
Line-ups
- 13S. VolkovG
- 88A. SokolD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 75M. NadeD
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 8I. PozoM
- 6R. FishchenkoM
- 80S. BessmertniyM
- 10Y. ReynaM
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 7G. OnugkhaF
- 1S. AydarovG
- 55M. KrizanD
- 19D. TananeevD
- 49I. DyatlovD
- 72A. GordyushenkoM
- 38L. MusaevM
- 5A. EgorychevM
- 23K. UshatovM
- 17S. BakaevM
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 22M. BeveevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 21E. AndersonD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 42V. PospelovM
- 5A. MouridM
- 8A. MendelM
- 11N. TitkovM
- 91B. GilF
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 18F. MoufiD
- 3I. KirschD
- 68M. RyadnoD
- 14S. KovacM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 73M. PetrovM
- 10I. PetrovM
Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Baltika
Rodina Moskva
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
Baltika
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Baltika
- 23 November 2024Baltika 2–1 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
- 14 July 2024Rodina Moskva 0–0 BaltikaFirst League
- 7 April 2023Baltika 0–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
- 18 September 2022Rodina Moskva 1–2 BaltikaFirst League
- 10 July 2020Baltika 1–2 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Baltika
Rodina Moskva
- A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assist
Baltika
- B. Gil4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.