Sunderland
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 41% Sunderland, 28% draw, 31% Fulham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.40, Fulham 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Fulham
- 22 February 2026Sunderland 1–3 FulhamPremier League
- 22 November 2025Fulham 1–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 8 February 2023Sunderland 2–3 FulhamFA Cup
- 28 January 2023Fulham 1–1 SunderlandFA Cup
- 27 April 2018Fulham 2–1 SunderlandChampionship
- 16 December 2017Sunderland 1–0 FulhamChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.89 for Fulham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Sunderland and 1.18 for Fulham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.86 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fulham rate 0.92 and 0.86.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.18 for Fulham. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.86 for Fulham.