Nantes
vs
Dunkerque
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nantes 2–1 Dunkerque
The model makes it 47% Nantes, 28% draw, 25% Dunkerque — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nantes 1.87, Dunkerque 1.05.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Nantes are 15th on 7 points from 7 games; Dunkerque are 12th on 8 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Nantes have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Boulogne.
- Dunkerque have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to PAU.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nantes vs Dunkerque
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nantes at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nantes vs Dunkerque
Nantes
- W2-1away to Boulogne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
Dunkerque
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
- L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026
What these results say
- Nantes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nantes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Dunkerque
- 27 July 2024Nantes 2–1 DunkerqueFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Nantes and Dunkerque
Nantes
- W. Younoussa2 goals1 assist
Dunkerque
- E. Prutsev2 goals1 assist
- S. Keita2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nantes carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.43 for Dunkerque. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Nantes and 1.05 for Dunkerque. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nantes rate 0.73 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunkerque rate 0.74 and 1.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dunkerque, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nantes a 6.2% chance of the title and Dunkerque 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Nantes against 1.05 for Dunkerque. Nantes's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.74 for Dunkerque.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nantes at home · Dunkerque away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Nantes 7, Dunkerque 7.
Dunkerque score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Nantes have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nantes
- at Saint Etienne24 Oct · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Clermont Foot30 Oct · Ligue 2win 45%
- at PAU6 Nov · Ligue 2win 42%
- vs Grenoble20 Nov · Ligue 2win 46%
Dunkerque
- vs Metz23 Oct · Ligue 2win 35%
- at Rodez30 Oct · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Guingamp6 Nov · Ligue 2win 43%
- at Sochaux20 Nov · Ligue 2win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.