Sparta Praha vs Zlin Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 19% Zlin — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Zlin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 2Martin SuchomelD
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 25Asger SørensenD
- 17John MercadoD
- 18Andy IrvingM
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 7Josimar AlcócerM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 22Lukáš HaraslínM
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 29Matyáš VojtaF
- 36Garang KuolM
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 17Stanislav DostalG
- 23Miloš KopečnýD
- 24Jakub ČernínD
- 39Antonín KřapkaD
- 22Michal FukalaD
- 10Stanislav PetrutaM
- 26Michal CupakM
- 82Marián PišojaM
- 4Tom UlbrichM
- 20Frank AppiahM
- 14Stanley KanuF
- 9Daniel ŠmigaF
- 31Lukas BartosakD
- 53Tomas HellebrandM
- 11Adam GažiM
- 88Tomáš PoznarF
- 64Stepan BachurekG
- 21David GrygeraD
- 28Jakub KolarD
- 37Tomas FojtuM
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Zlin
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Zlin
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Baník Ostrava25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 16 | Zlin | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Zlin
- 8 February 2026Zlin 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 31 August 2025Sparta Praha 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 26 November 2023Sparta Praha 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 29 July 2023Zlin 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 25 February 2023Zlin 2–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 3 September 2022Sparta Praha 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Zlin
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes52
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 3–1. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Irving 14' for Sparta Praha, D. Smiga 57' for Zlin, J. Brunes 60' for Sparta Praha, A. Karabec (penalty) 66' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 2.11–0.85.