Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Plzen, 21% draw, 29% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.00, 4.76 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Florian WiegeleG
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 99Amar MemićM
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 25Christophe KabongoM
- 11Matěj VydraF
- 18Tomáš LadraF
- 7Salim Fago LawalF
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 66Sebastian BoháčM
- 10Mohamed ToureF
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 26Filip VedralD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 44Amadou DanteD
- 6Lukas PenxaM
- 68Jakub JanetzkýM
- 20Lukáš SaalM
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekM
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 23Petr ŠevčíkM
- 10Antonin VanicekM
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 9Oliver VelichF
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 24Dominik SváčekG
- 4Eric HunalD
- 29Patrik ŽitnýM
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
Form going into Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno
Plzen
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Plzen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 5 February 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 November 2022Plzen 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 19 January 2022Plzen 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2021Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić43
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
- A. Vaníček31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Plzen at 50% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Christophe Kabongo 14' for Plzen, Daniel Vašulín 58' for Zbrojovka Brno. On expected goals it finished 0.80–0.62.