Birmingham
vs
Preston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Birmingham 1–0 Preston
The model makes it 47% Birmingham, 28% draw, 25% Preston — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Birmingham 1.75, Preston 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Birmingham are 10th on 11 points from 8 games; Preston are 23rd on 4 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Birmingham have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Middlesbrough.
- Preston are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw away to QPR.
- Last 6 meetings: Birmingham 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Birmingham 2–1 Preston.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Birmingham vs Preston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Birmingham vs Preston
Birmingham
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
Preston
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
- W2-1Blackburn5 September 2026
- L1-3Bristol City1 September 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Birmingham.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Preston
- 22 April 2026Birmingham 2–1 PrestonChampionship
- 21 October 2025Preston 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 1 April 2024Birmingham 1–0 PrestonChampionship
- 19 September 2023Preston 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 21 January 2023Birmingham 1–2 PrestonChampionship
- 3 September 2022Preston 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Preston
Birmingham
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Birmingham carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.39 for Preston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Birmingham and 0.94 for Preston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Birmingham rate 0.72 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Preston rate 0.64 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Birmingham a 0.6% chance of the title and Preston 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Birmingham against 0.94 for Preston. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.61 for Preston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Birmingham at home · Preston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Birmingham 8, Preston 8.
Birmingham score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Preston have let in 3 there.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Birmingham have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Birmingham
- vs QPR17 Oct · Championshipwin 42%
- at Cardiff24 Oct · Championshipwin 35%
- at Lincoln31 Oct · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Millwall3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Preston
- at Wrexham17 Oct · Championshipwin 26%
- vs West Brom24 Oct · Championshipwin 33%
- at Stoke City31 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Sheffield Utd3 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.