Burnley
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 1–0 Charlton
The model makes it 49% Burnley, 29% draw, 22% Charlton — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Burnley 1.67, Charlton 0.74.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Burnley are bottom on 4 points from 8 games; Charlton are 9th on 12 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Burnley have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Derby.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Last 6 meetings: Burnley 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 May 2016, ended Charlton 0–3 Burnley.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burnley vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Charlton
Burnley
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
Charlton
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Charlton
- 7 May 2016Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 19 December 2015Burnley 4–0 CharltonChampionship
- 22 March 2014Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 28 September 2013Burnley 3–0 CharltonChampionship
- 2 March 2013Charlton 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 17 November 2012Burnley 0–1 CharltonChampionship
The two sides
Burnley carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.42 for Charlton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Burnley and 0.74 for Charlton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burnley rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlton rate 0.53 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charlton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 2.1% chance of the title and Charlton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Burnley against 0.74 for Charlton. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.3 for Charlton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burnley at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Burnley 8, Charlton 8.
Burnley score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Charlton have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burnley
- vs Wolves16 Oct · Championshipwin 40%
- at Lincoln24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Portsmouth31 Oct · Championshipwin 49%
- at QPR3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Charlton
- at Watford17 Oct · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Norwich24 Oct · Championshipwin 33%
- at Middlesbrough31 Oct · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Bolton3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.