PAU
vs
Annecy
The model makes it 20% PAU, 20% draw, 60% Annecy — fair odds of 5.00, 5.00 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: PAU 1.25, Annecy 2.29.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PAU | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 45 |
| 7 | Annecy | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: PAU vs Annecy
- 24 April 2026Annecy 5–1 PAULigue 2
- 9 August 2025PAU 2–0 AnnecyLigue 2
- 28 March 2025PAU 1–0 AnnecyLigue 2
- 1 November 2024Annecy 2–0 PAULigue 2
- 27 January 2024Annecy 0–0 PAULigue 2
- 23 September 2023PAU 0–3 AnnecyLigue 2
The two sides
PAU carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.97 for Annecy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for PAU and 2.29 for Annecy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAU rate 0.84 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Annecy rate 0.99 and 0.79.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Annecy the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for PAU against 2.29 for Annecy. PAU's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.79 for Annecy.