Slavia Praha
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 79% Slavia Praha, 13% draw, 8% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.98, Zbrojovka Brno 0.88.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slavia Praha
- D1-1away to Slovan Liberec16 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 August 2026
- W5-1Slovácko26 July 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-1Slovan Liberec7 August 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen1 August 2026
- W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 11 | Zbrojovka Brno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 11 February 2023Slavia Praha 2–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 28 August 2022Zbrojovka Brno 0–4 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 4 April 2021Zbrojovka Brno 0–0 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 29 November 2020Slavia Praha 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers
Slavia Praha
- M. Chytil4 goals
- W. Nowak3 goals1 assists
Zbrojovka Brno
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.08 against 6.62 for Zbrojovka Brno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Slavia Praha W-W-W-D; Zbrojovka Brno W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.98 goals for Slavia Praha and 0.88 for Zbrojovka Brno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.37 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.72 and 1.15.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.88 for Zbrojovka Brno. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.15 for Zbrojovka Brno.