Hradec Králové
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 57% Hradec Králové, 22% draw, 21% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 2.02, Sparta Praha 1.14.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hradec Králové
- W2-1Baník Ostrava9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Sparta Praha
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hradec Králové
No league goals recorded yet.
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer2 goals1 assists
- A. Irving2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.83 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hradec Králové W-D-W; Sparta Praha L-W-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Hradec Králové and 1.14 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 1.05 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 0.98 and 1.02.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sparta Praha, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 1.14 for Sparta Praha. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.02 for Sparta Praha.