Czech Liga · Regular Season - 3 · 9 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

Slavia Praha vs Pardubice

Fortuna Arena, Prague

The model makes it 84% Slavia Praha, 10% draw, 6% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).

Expected goals: Slavia Praha 3.42, Pardubice 0.91.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

58%
Both teams to score
80%
Over 2.5 goals
20%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines3-0 9%3-1 8%2-0 8%

Form going into this match

Slavia Praha

  • W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 August 2026
  • W5-1Slovácko26 July 2026

Pardubice

  • L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Slavia Praha220091+86
15Pardubice200214-30

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice

  • 1 February 2026Pardubice 1–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
  • 23 August 2025Slavia Praha 3–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 8 February 2025Pardubice 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
  • 1 September 2024Slavia Praha 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 29 June 2024Slavia Praha 1–1 PardubiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 February 2024Slavia Praha 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga

Leading scorers

Slavia Praha

  • W. Nowak3 goals
  • M. Chytil2 goals
  • M. Sadílek1 goals2 assists

Pardubice

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.59 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Slavia Praha W-W; Pardubice L-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.42 goals for Slavia Praha and 0.91 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Slavia Praha rate 1.37 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.78 and 1.32.

That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.42 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.91 for Pardubice. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.32 for Pardubice.