Slavia Praha
vs
Pardubice
The model makes it 84% Slavia Praha, 10% draw, 6% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 3.42, Pardubice 0.91.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slavia Praha
- W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 August 2026
- W5-1Slovácko26 July 2026
Pardubice
- L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 6 |
| 15 | Pardubice | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice
- 1 February 2026Pardubice 1–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 23 August 2025Slavia Praha 3–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 8 February 2025Pardubice 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 1 September 2024Slavia Praha 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 29 June 2024Slavia Praha 1–1 PardubiceFriendlies Clubs
- 25 February 2024Slavia Praha 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak3 goals
- M. Chytil2 goals
- M. Sadílek1 goals2 assists
Pardubice
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.59 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Slavia Praha W-W; Pardubice L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.42 goals for Slavia Praha and 0.91 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.37 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.78 and 1.32.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.42 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.91 for Pardubice. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.32 for Pardubice.