Mladost Lucani
vs
Cukaricki
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 32% Mladost Lucani, 32% draw, 36% Cukaricki — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 0.97, Cukaricki 1.07.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mladost Lucani
- D0-0away to Železničar Pančevo3 August 2026
- D0-0Novi Pazar26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Surdulica19 July 2026
Cukaricki
- W3-0Radnicki 19231 August 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS25 July 2026
- L0-1IMT Novi Beograd19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cukaricki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mladost Lucani
No league goals recorded yet.
Cukaricki
- U. Miladinović3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mladost Lucani carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.48 for Cukaricki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mladost Lucani D-D-D; Cukaricki L-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.07 for Cukaricki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mladost Lucani rate 0.33 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cukaricki rate 0.74 and 1.56.
That points to 33% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cukaricki the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 1.07 for Cukaricki. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.56 for Cukaricki.