SK Beveren
vs
OH Leuven
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 33% SK Beveren, 27% draw, 40% OH Leuven — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SK Beveren 1.26, OH Leuven 1.40.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SK Beveren
- L0-4away to Zulte Waregem22 August 2026
- W1-0Anderlecht16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Antwerp9 August 2026
OH Leuven
- L0-3Club Brugge KV15 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charleroi9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SK Beveren | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs OH Leuven
- 12 July 2023OH Leuven 5–1 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2021OH Leuven 1–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 29 August 2020SK Beveren 1–3 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 6 February 2016SK Beveren 2–2 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 24 October 2015OH Leuven 0–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 15 February 2014SK Beveren 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
The two sides
SK Beveren carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.77 for OH Leuven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SK Beveren L-W-L; OH Leuven L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for SK Beveren and 1.40 for OH Leuven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SK Beveren rate 0.59 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OH Leuven rate 0.97 and 1.13.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SK Beveren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OH Leuven the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for SK Beveren against 1.4 for OH Leuven. SK Beveren's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.13 for OH Leuven.