FK Jablonec
vs
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 34% FK Jablonec, 24% draw, 42% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.51, Slovan Liberec 1.68.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Jablonec
- W1-0Slovácko9 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Slovan Liberec
- W1-0away to Zlin22 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Praha16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno7 August 2026
- L0-1Teplice1 August 2026
- W3-1away to Plzen25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FK Jablonec
No league goals recorded yet.
Slovan Liberec
- P. Dulay2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.78 for Slovan Liberec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Jablonec W-W-W; Slovan Liberec W-L-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.68 for Slovan Liberec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.74 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Liberec rate 0.94 and 1.08.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.68 for Slovan Liberec. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.08 for Slovan Liberec.