Anderlecht
vs
Genk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 28% Anderlecht, 26% draw, 46% Genk — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.21, Genk 1.63.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Anderlecht
- L0-1away to SK Beveren16 August 2026
- W2-1RAAL La Louvière9 August 2026
Genk
- D4-4away to Antwerp22 August 2026
- W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Zulte Waregem9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Anderlecht | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Genk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Genk
- 8 February 2026Genk 2–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 4 December 2025Genk 1–3 AnderlechtCup
- 14 September 2025Anderlecht 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 25 May 2025Genk 2–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 6 April 2025Anderlecht 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 22 December 2024Genk 2–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
Anderlecht
No league goals recorded yet.
Genk
- R. Durosinmi2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Anderlecht carry a model rating of 6.73 against 7.04 for Genk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Anderlecht W-L; Genk L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Anderlecht and 1.63 for Genk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anderlecht rate 0.88 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genk rate 1.05 and 0.73.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genk the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Anderlecht against 1.63 for Genk. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.73 for Genk.