Kortrijk
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 40% Kortrijk, 27% draw, 33% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.42, Zulte Waregem 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kortrijk
- L0-3Antwerp15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV7 August 2026
Zulte Waregem
- W4-0SK Beveren22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Union St. Gilloise15 August 2026
- W2-1Genk9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
| 2 | Zulte Waregem | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem
- 24 February 2023Zulte Waregem 3–3 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 15 October 2022Kortrijk 1–3 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 19 February 2022Kortrijk 5–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 25 September 2021Zulte Waregem 2–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 27 February 2021Kortrijk 1–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 2 November 2020Zulte Waregem 1–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kortrijk carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.75 for Zulte Waregem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Kortrijk L-L; Zulte Waregem W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Kortrijk and 1.25 for Zulte Waregem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kortrijk rate 0.75 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zulte Waregem rate 0.81 and 1.00.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zulte Waregem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kortrijk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kortrijk against 1.25 for Zulte Waregem. Kortrijk's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1 for Zulte Waregem.