Sheffield Utd
vs
Wrexham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Utd 2–1 Wrexham
The model makes it 45% Sheffield Utd, 27% draw, 28% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.66, Wrexham 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sheffield Utd are 15th on 12 points from 10 games; Wrexham are 17th on 11 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Portsmouth.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to West Brom.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Sheffield Utd 1–2 Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Utd at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham
Sheffield Utd
- L2-3away to Portsmouth14 October 2026
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
Wrexham
- L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham
- 21 March 2026Sheffield Utd 1–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 26 December 2025Wrexham 5–3 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 13 August 2024Sheffield Utd 4–2 WrexhamLeague Cup
- 7 February 2023Sheffield Utd 3–1 WrexhamFA Cup
- 29 January 2023Wrexham 3–3 Sheffield UtdFA Cup
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Wrexham
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford41
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sheffield Utd carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.51 for Wrexham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.20 for Wrexham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Utd rate 0.78 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wrexham rate 0.72 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Utd a 0.7% chance of the title and Wrexham 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.20 for Wrexham. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.41 for Wrexham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sheffield Utd at home · Wrexham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sheffield UtdWrexham
Sheffield Utd are 15th after 10 Championship matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Wrexham are 16th after 10 (between 10th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Sheffield Utd 10, Wrexham 10.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Utd
- at Preston3 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- at Charlton7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Watford21 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
Wrexham
- vs Middlesbrough4 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Wolves7 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Lincoln21 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.