Boulogne
vs
Dijon
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 30% Boulogne, 37% draw, 33% Dijon — fair odds of 3.33, 2.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (21%).
Expected goals: Boulogne 0.77, Dijon 0.81.
Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Boulogne
- L0-1away to Guingamp14 August 2026
- D0-0Nancy8 August 2026
Dijon
- L0-1PAU14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Montpellier8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Boulogne | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Dijon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Dijon
- 9 May 2025Dijon 0–3 BoulogneLigue 3
- 17 January 2025Boulogne 2–2 DijonLigue 3
- 20 May 2011Dijon 1–1 BoulogneLigue 2
- 21 December 2010Boulogne 0–1 DijonLigue 2
The two sides
Boulogne carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.76 for Dijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Boulogne D-L; Dijon D-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Boulogne and 0.81 for Dijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boulogne rate 0.51 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dijon rate 0.57 and 0.80.
That points to 21% for over two and a half goals and 31% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (21%), 0-1 (16%), 1-0 (15%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Boulogne against 0.81 for Dijon. Boulogne's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/0.8 for Dijon.