4 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Boulogne vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction & result

Boulogne-sur-Mer
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Boulogne 1-1 Dijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Boulogne, 29% draw, 35% Dijon — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Boulogne at 36% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boulogne4%Draw92%Dijon4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Aurelien Platret
27'
⚽T. Epaillyassist: B. Besic
37'
Julien Boyer
56'
56'
Ben-Chayeel Hamada
57'
🔁B. Hamadaout: Q. Bernard
63'
⚽T. Dongassist: J. Marie
70'
🔁A. Ntamackout: E. Lago
71'
🔁M. Barretoout: A. Lembezat
71'
🔁J. Marieout: P. Bellon
🔁J. Boyerout: M. Mion
73'
🔁N. Binetout: J. Bultel
73'
🔁T. Epaillyout: N. Fatar
73'
🔁B. Besicout: L. Etonde
84'
87'
🔁T. Dongout: H. Vargas-Rios
90+2'
Waly Diouf

Match stats — Boulogne vs Dijon

47%Possession53%
15Shots12
3On target6
10Corners5

Line-ups

Boulogne 5-3-2
  • 99B. NoukeuG
  • 21A. PlatretD
  • 25A. KerriouD
  • 15A. PinotD
  • 18D. ThiamD
  • 12J. BoyerD
  • 8J. MartinM
  • 19N. BinetM
  • 64T. EpaillyM
  • 10A. HbouchF
  • 17B. BesicF
Substitutes
  • 1X. LenogueG
  • 29M. MionD
  • 26O. LenneD
  • 28S. PaillardM
  • 14J. BultelM
  • 36M. SoumahM
  • 11N. FatarF
  • 13L. EtondeF
  • 7A. NassiriM
Coach: Fabien Dagneaux
Dijon 4-1-3-2
  • 16P. DelecroixG
  • 7B. HamadaD
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 14J. MarieM
  • 21S. ChouchaneM
  • 4M. BarretoM
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 9T. DongF
Substitutes
  • 71E. KetterleG
  • 15A. BargainD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 20H. Vargas-RiosM
  • 42Y. AkaD
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 30H. MimouneM
  • 90E. LagoF
Coach: Baptiste Ridira

Form going into Boulogne vs Dijon

Boulogne

  • D0-0away to Montpellier28 August 2026
  • D1-1RED Star FC 9321 August 2026

Dijon

  • L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Clermont Foot21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Boulogne705235-25
9Dijon7232101009

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Dijon

  • 9 May 2025Dijon 0–3 BoulogneLigue 3
  • 17 January 2025Boulogne 2–2 DijonLigue 3
  • 20 May 2011Dijon 1–1 BoulogneLigue 2
  • 21 December 2010Boulogne 0–1 DijonLigue 2

Leading scorers: Boulogne and Dijon

Boulogne

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Dijon

  • Júlio Tavares3 goals1 assist
  • Samy Olivier Chouchane3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.