Casa Pia
vs
Moreirense
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 70% Casa Pia, 21% draw, 9% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.43, 4.76 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Casa Pia 1.91, Moreirense 0.51.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Casa Pia
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Moreirense
- D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Moreirense
- 1 March 2026Casa Pia 1–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 27 September 2025Moreirense 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Moreirense 3–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 14 September 2024Casa Pia 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 12 May 2024Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 8 January 2024Moreirense 1–4 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Casa Pia
No league goals recorded yet.
Moreirense
- João Veloso1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Casa Pia carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.47 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Casa Pia L; Moreirense D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Casa Pia and 0.51 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Casa Pia rate 0.84 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.54 and 1.20.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 35% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 2-0 (16%), 3-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Moreirense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Casa Pia the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Casa Pia against 0.51 for Moreirense. Casa Pia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.2 for Moreirense.