Famalicao
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 34% Famalicao, 26% draw, 40% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Famalicao 1.40, GIL Vicente 1.51.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Famalicao
- D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026
GIL Vicente
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente
- 1 February 2026GIL Vicente 5–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2025Famalicao 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 17 February 2025GIL Vicente 0–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 14 September 2024Famalicao 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 29 March 2024GIL Vicente 1–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
The two sides
Famalicao carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.83 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Famalicao D; GIL Vicente W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Famalicao and 1.51 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Famalicao rate 0.69 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 1.02 and 1.07.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Famalicao against 1.51 for GIL Vicente. Famalicao's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.07 for GIL Vicente.