Sarmiento Junin
vs
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Rosario Central
The model makes it 32% Sarmiento Junin, 29% draw, 39% Rosario Central — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.16, Rosario Central 1.32.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Rosario Central: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sarmiento Junin are 5th on 20 points from 12 games; Rosario Central are top on 22 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to River Plate.
- Rosario Central are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Independiente Rivadavia.
- Last 6 meetings: Rosario Central 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Rosario Central 2–1 Sarmiento Junin.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
Sarmiento Junin
- D1-1River Plate14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
Rosario Central
- W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Banfield6 October 2026
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin.
- Rosario Central went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rosario Central had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sarmiento Junin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 20 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sarmiento Junin
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
Rosario Central
Chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A · 39% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
- 19 April 2026Rosario Central 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 October 2025Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 February 2025Rosario Central 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 July 2024Rosario Central 4–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 March 2023Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 July 2022Rosario Central 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María104
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.82 for Rosario Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.32 for Rosario Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.93 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosario Central rate 0.95 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 1.32 for Rosario Central. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.01 for Rosario Central.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarmiento Junin at home · Rosario Central away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Sarmiento Junin 27, Rosario Central 30.
Sarmiento Junin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Rosario Central have let in 9 there.
Rosario Central score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sarmiento Junin have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Sarmiento Junin
- at Tigre8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Rosario Central
- vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.