River Plate
vs
Argentinos Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 49% River Plate, 25% draw, 26% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: River Plate 1.72, Argentinos Juniors 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
River Plate carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.69 for Argentinos Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): River Plate L-L-L-L-L; Argentinos Juniors L-W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for River Plate and 1.21 for Argentinos Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
River Plate rate 0.79 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Argentinos Juniors rate 0.83 and 1.15.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for River Plate against 1.21 for Argentinos Juniors. River Plate's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.15 for Argentinos Juniors.