Platense
vs
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 14% Platense, 20% draw, 66% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 7.14, 5.00 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Platense 0.89, Boca Juniors 2.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Platense
- W1-0away to Independiente9 August 2026
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba30 July 2026
- D2-2Union Santa Fe25 July 2026
- L0-2Estudiantes La Plata3 May 2026
Boca Juniors
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield8 August 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago2 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Platense carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.88 for Boca Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Platense L-D-L-L-W; Boca Juniors W-L-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Platense and 2.15 for Boca Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Platense rate 0.52 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boca Juniors rate 0.96 and 0.91.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Platense a 0% chance of the title and Boca Juniors 48.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Platense against 2.15 for Boca Juniors. Platense's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.91 for Boca Juniors.