Alanyaspor
vs
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 29% Alanyaspor, 22% draw, 49% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.45, 4.55 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.57, Beşiktaş 2.10.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş
- 23 April 2026Beşiktaş 3–0 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 8 February 2026Beşiktaş 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 31 August 2025Alanyaspor 2–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 18 May 2025Alanyaspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 21 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 12 May 2024Alanyaspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
The two sides
Alanyaspor carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.77 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Beşiktaş W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Alanyaspor and 2.10 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alanyaspor rate 0.64 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.07 and 1.30.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Alanyaspor against 2.1 for Beşiktaş. Alanyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.3 for Beşiktaş.