Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 44% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Beşiktaş at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3N. LimaD
- 5F. AlitiD
- 50U. AkdagD
- 94F. HadergjonajM
- 42G. MakoutaM
- 55B. GezekM
- 11RuanM
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 17A. UsluogluF
- 7I. KayaF
- 23M. BayramG
- 4B. OzyurtD
- 20F. AksoyD
- 10I. HagiM
- 8E. KeskinM
- 26I. CelikM
- 88Y. OzdemirM
- 19BikoueF
- 12M. EliaF
- 1A. NubelG
- 22T. BulutD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopcuD
- 33R. YilmazD
- 6S. OzcanM
- 18V. CernyM
- 4W. NdidiM
- 10O. KokcuM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 62M. MurilloD
- 35T. DjaloD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 8K. Kayra YilmazM
- 7M. RashicaM
- 28D. VlahovicF
- 90S. KilicsoyF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş
Alanyaspor
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Beşiktaş
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris20 August 2026
- W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové13 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hradec Králové6 August 2026
- W2-0away to FC Midtjylland30 July 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş won every one of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş
- 23 April 2026Beşiktaş 3–0 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 8 February 2026Beşiktaş 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 31 August 2025Alanyaspor 2–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 18 May 2025Alanyaspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 21 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Beşiktaş at 44% and given a win for Alanyaspor 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: N. Lima 73' for Alanyaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.41–0.70.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.