Guimaraes
vs
Nacional
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 55% Guimaraes, 23% draw, 22% Nacional — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guimaraes 1.93, Nacional 1.13.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Guimaraes
- L0-1Arouca8 August 2026
Nacional
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where they stand. Nacional has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Guimaraes vs Nacional
- 16 May 2026Nacional 2–0 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 2 January 2026Guimaraes 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 3 May 2025Nacional 1–2 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Guimaraes 2–2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 26 April 2021Nacional 1–0 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 21 January 2021Guimaraes 3–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guimaraes carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.65 for Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Guimaraes L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Guimaraes and 1.13 for Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guimaraes rate 0.92 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional rate 0.73 and 1.11.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guimaraes the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Guimaraes against 1.13 for Nacional. Guimaraes's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.11 for Nacional.