23 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

Guimaraes vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Guimaraes 1-0 Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Guimaraes, 23% draw, 27% Nacional — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Guimaraes at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Gustavoassist: M. Nogueira
28'
G. Nogueira
38'
M. Nogueira
45+4'
T. Margarido
49'
⚽Samu (pen)assist: Samu
56'
🔁Wesley Gasolinaout: D. I. de la Cruz
56'
🔁M. Baezaout: W. Kokolo
63'
🔁L. Doucetout: B. Mukendi
63'
🔁M. Nogueiraout: O. Camara
68'
🔁Lizieroout: S. Gavriel
72'
🔁G. Nogueiraout: M. Mitrovic
78'
🔁Gustavoout: T. Arcanjo
80'
🔁M. Jensenout: A. Obando
80'
🔁Matheus Diasout: M. Djalo
90+5'
Daniel Junior

Match stats — Guimaraes vs Nacional

0%Possession50%
0Shots5
0On target0
0Corners3
0xG0.38

Line-ups

Nacional 3-4-2-1
  • 1Renato MarinG
  • 34Léo SantosD
  • 6Matheus DiasD
  • 38Ze VitorD
  • 52Wesley GasolinaM
  • 28LizieroM
  • 22Filipe SoaresM
  • 7Markus JensenM
  • 8Miguel BaezaF
  • 10Daniel JúniorF
  • 99Pablo Messias CardozoF
Substitutes
  • 21Williams KokoloD
  • 2Daniel De la CruzD
  • 11Stavros GavrielM
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
  • 23Mateus Jose IseppeM
  • 88Deivison Souza BritoM
  • 9Allen ObandoF
Coach: Giao Joao

Form going into Guimaraes vs Nacional

Guimaraes

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026
  • L0-1Arouca8 August 2026

Nacional

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Guimaraes vs Nacional

  • 16 May 2026Nacional 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 2 January 2026Vitória SC 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 3 May 2025Nacional 1–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 23 December 2024Vitória SC 2–2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 26 April 2021Nacional 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga

The result against the call

Guimaraes beat Nacional 1–0. The model had made a win for Guimaraes its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Gustavo 4' for Vitória SC.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.