GIL Vicente
vs
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 37% GIL Vicente, 28% draw, 35% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.33, Casa Pia 1.30.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
GIL Vicente
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Casa Pia
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia
- 27 April 2026GIL Vicente 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 13 December 2025Casa Pia 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 22 February 2025Casa Pia 1–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 22 September 2024GIL Vicente 1–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 3 March 2024Casa Pia 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 2 October 2023GIL Vicente 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
The two sides
GIL Vicente carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.01 for Casa Pia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): GIL Vicente W; Casa Pia L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for GIL Vicente and 1.30 for Casa Pia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GIL Vicente rate 1.02 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Casa Pia rate 0.89 and 0.69.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 1.3 for Casa Pia. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.69 for Casa Pia.