Newell's Old Boys
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 31% Newell's Old Boys, 25% draw, 44% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.40, Deportivo Riestra 1.71.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Newell's Old Boys
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield4 May 2026
- D1-1Instituto Cordoba26 April 2026
Deportivo Riestra
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata8 August 2026
- L0-1Barracas Central2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia29 July 2026
- W3-0Boca Juniors26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Lanus2 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.9 for Deportivo Riestra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Newell's Old Boys D-D-W-L-D; Deportivo Riestra D-W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 1.71 for Deportivo Riestra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Riestra rate 0.96 and 0.87.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newell's Old Boys, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Riestra the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 1.71 for Deportivo Riestra. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.87 for Deportivo Riestra.