Estudiantes La Plata
vs
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 37% Estudiantes La Plata, 24% draw, 39% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Estudiantes La Plata 1.67, Gimnasia La Plata 1.74.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Estudiantes La Plata
- L0-2away to Deportivo Riestra8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors5 August 2026
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia1 August 2026
- L0-2Independiente26 July 2026
- L0-1Racing Club10 May 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Estudiantes La Plata
No league goals recorded yet.
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estudiantes La Plata carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.82 for Gimnasia La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Estudiantes La Plata L-L-W-L-L; Gimnasia La Plata W-L-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 1.74 for Gimnasia La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.77 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia La Plata rate 1.07 and 1.15.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata against 1.74 for Gimnasia La Plata. Estudiantes La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.15 for Gimnasia La Plata.