Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 4-0 Gimnasia La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Estudiantes La Plata, 24% draw, 30% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Estudiantes La Plata at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16F. MusleraG
- 40E. MancusoD
- 4S. NunezD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 21L. PioviM
- 22A. CastroM
- 31B. RodriguezM
- 10T. PalaciosM
- 17J. BurgosM
- 19A. GaichF
- 1F. IacovichG
- 26R. Funes MoriD
- 20E. MezaD
- 35V. PieraniD
- 7J. SosaM
- 8Gabriel NevesM
- 32J. CorreaF
- 18E. CetreF
- 28B. AguirreF
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13German ContiD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 5I. MiramonM
- 16A. MaxM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 15H. CastilloG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 35J. CortazzoD
- 42S. VillarrealM
- 36L. LamellaD
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 33P. AguiarM
- 9M. ZalazarF
- 7M. PanaroF
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia La Plata
Estudiantes La Plata
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Deportivo Riestra8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors5 August 2026
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia1 August 2026
- L0-2Independiente26 July 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Aldosivi2 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate29 July 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026
What these results say
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 February 2026Gimnasia La Plata 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 December 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 October 2025Estudiantes La Plata 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 April 2025Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024Estudiantes La Plata 4–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 February 2024Gimnasia La Plata 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Gimnasia La Plata
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estudiantes La Plata beat Gimnasia La Plata 4–0. The model had made a win for Estudiantes La Plata its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Mancuso 43' for Estudiantes La Plata, T. Palacios 60' for Estudiantes La Plata, J. Burgos 70' for Estudiantes La Plata, A. Castro 84' for Estudiantes La Plata. Sent off: Alexis Steimbach (Gimnasia La Plata) 35', Germán Conti (Gimnasia La Plata) 53'. On expected goals it finished 2.36–0.54.