Qarabag
vs
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qarabag 2–1 Neftchi Baku
The model makes it 46% Qarabag, 26% draw, 28% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Qarabag 2.14, Neftchi Baku 1.42.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Qarabag are 3rd on 13 points from 5 games; Neftchi Baku are top on 15 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Safa Baku.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win away to Qabala.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2026, ended Neftchi Baku 2–1 Qarabag.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 46% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sumqayıt31 August 2026
- W3-1Şamaxı FK17 August 2026
Neftchi Baku
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zira30 August 2026
- W5-0Araz23 August 2026
What these results say
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Qarabag won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Neftchi Baku had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
- 30 April 2026Neftchi Baku 2–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 26 April 2026Neftchi Baku 1–5 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 9 November 2025Qarabag 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 19 April 2025Qarabag 3–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 16 February 2025Neftchi Baku 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 1 December 2024Neftchi Baku 0–3 QarabagPremyer Liqa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qarabag carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.69 for Neftchi Baku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Qarabag and 1.42 for Neftchi Baku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qarabag rate 0.96 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neftchi Baku rate 0.98 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Baku, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qarabag a 17.9% chance of the title and Neftchi Baku 14.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Qarabag against 1.42 for Neftchi Baku. Qarabag's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.37 for Neftchi Baku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qarabag at home · Neftchi Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qarabag 5, Neftchi Baku 6.
Qarabag score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Neftchi Baku have let in 1 there.
Neftchi Baku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Qarabag have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Qarabag
- at Sabah FA25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Qabala31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 52%
- vs Turan7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 52%
Neftchi Baku
- vs Turan24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 50%
- at Şamaxı FK31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 44%
- vs Kapaz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 66%
- at Araz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.