Qabala
vs
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qabala 0–2 Sabah FA
The model makes it 18% Qabala, 26% draw, 56% Sabah FA — fair odds of 5.56, 3.85 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Qabala 0.75, Sabah FA 2.16.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Qabala are 8th on 4 points from 6 games; Sabah FA are 2nd on 15 points from 5 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qabala have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Neftchi Baku.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Imisli FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Sabah FA 7–1 Qabala.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Qabala vs Sabah FA
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 56% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qabala vs Sabah FA
Qabala
- L0-3Neftchi Baku18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz12 September 2026
- W2-1Imisli FK4 September 2026
- D0-0Şamaxı FK29 August 2026
- L0-1Safa Baku22 August 2026
Sabah FA
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Araz31 August 2026
- W2-0Kapaz15 August 2026
What these results say
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA won every one of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Qabala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qabala vs Sabah FA
- 10 March 2026Sabah FA 7–1 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 5 March 2026Qabala 2–2 Sabah FACup
- 16 February 2026Qabala 0–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 4 February 2026Sabah FA 0–0 QabalaCup
- 3 November 2025Sabah FA 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 12 May 2024Qabala 2–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
A clear gap in the ratings
Qabala carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.85 for Sabah FA. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Qabala and 2.16 for Sabah FA. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qabala rate 0.44 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabah FA rate 1.05 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qabala a 0% chance of the title and Sabah FA 67.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Qabala against 2.16 for Sabah FA. Qabala's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.05 for Sabah FA.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qabala at home · Sabah FA away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qabala 6, Sabah FA 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Qabala
- at Araz23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- vs Qarabag31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 21%
- at Zira7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 22%
- at Safa Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 31%
Sabah FA
- vs Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- vs Qarabag25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- at Turan31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.