Hellas Verona
vs
Catanzaro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Hellas Verona 1–0 Catanzaro
The model makes it 44% Hellas Verona, 29% draw, 27% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.67, Catanzaro 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Hellas Verona are 8th on 7 points from 5 games; Catanzaro are 19th on 3 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Hellas Verona have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Vicenza Virtus.
- Catanzaro have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sampdoria.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hellas Verona at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
Hellas Verona
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
- L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026
Catanzaro
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026
What these results say
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
- 14 August 2021Hellas Verona 3–0 CatanzaroCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Catanzaro
Hellas Verona
- S. Mulattieri2 goals1 assist
- S. Cerbone2 goals
- D. Mosquera2 goals
Catanzaro
- P. Iemmello2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hellas Verona carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.58 for Catanzaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.08 for Catanzaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hellas Verona rate 0.76 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Catanzaro rate 0.85 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hellas Verona against 1.08 for Catanzaro. Hellas Verona's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.47 for Catanzaro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hellas Verona at home · Catanzaro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Hellas Verona 5, Catanzaro 5.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Hellas Verona have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hellas Verona
- vs Pisa24 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Juve Stabia27 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Carrarese31 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Mantova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Catanzaro
- vs Ascoli24 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Benevento27 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Padova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Cesena7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.