Saint Etienne
vs
Clermont Foot
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 15% Saint Etienne, 23% draw, 62% Clermont Foot — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Saint Etienne 0.81, Clermont Foot 1.85.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Saint Etienne
- W3-0away to Sochaux8 August 2026
Clermont Foot
- D0-0Reims8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | Clermont Foot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona2 goals
- J. Breum1 goals1 assists
Clermont Foot
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Saint Etienne carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.99 for Clermont Foot. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Saint Etienne W; Clermont Foot D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Saint Etienne and 1.85 for Clermont Foot. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Saint Etienne rate 0.58 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Clermont Foot rate 0.95 and 0.74.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Saint Etienne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Saint Etienne against 1.85 for Clermont Foot. Saint Etienne's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.74 for Clermont Foot.