Laval
vs
Nantes
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 21% Laval, 26% draw, 53% Nantes — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Laval 0.92, Nantes 1.62.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Laval
- L1-3away to Rodez8 August 2026
Nantes
- L0-1RED Star FC 938 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Laval | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Nantes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Laval
- E. Clavreul1 goals
Nantes
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Laval carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.98 for Nantes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Laval L; Nantes L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Laval and 1.62 for Nantes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Laval rate 0.60 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nantes rate 1.05 and 0.81.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Laval against 1.62 for Nantes. Laval's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.81 for Nantes.