Henan Jianye
vs
Tianjin Teda
Super League prediction
Our model says: Henan Jianye 1–0 Tianjin Teda
The model makes it 38% Henan Jianye, 30% draw, 32% Tianjin Teda — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Henan Jianye 1.37, Tianjin Teda 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Henan Jianye are 12th on 27 points from 26 games; Tianjin Teda are 14th on 25 points from 26 games — Super League.
- Henan Jianye have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Tianjin Teda are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Shenyang Urban.
- Last 6 meetings: Tianjin Teda 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Tianjin Teda 1–2 Henan Jianye.
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Henan Jianye at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
Henan Jianye
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
Tianjin Teda
- W1-0Shenyang Urban12 September 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
- D1-1Qingdao Youth Island29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
- L2-4Beijing Guoan15 August 2026
What these results say
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tianjin Teda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda
- 19 May 2026Tianjin Teda 1–2 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 28 September 2025Tianjin Teda 1–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 5 May 2025Henan Jianye 3–4 Tianjin TedaSuper League
- 14 September 2024Tianjin Teda 1–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 4 May 2024Henan Jianye 1–2 Tianjin TedaSuper League
- 13 August 2023Henan Jianye 1–0 Tianjin TedaSuper League
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda
Henan Jianye
- Gustavo13 goals4 assists
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles10 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Henan Jianye carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.32 for Tianjin Teda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Henan Jianye and 1.16 for Tianjin Teda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Henan Jianye rate 0.50 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tianjin Teda rate 0.49 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Henan Jianye the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Henan Jianye against 1.16 for Tianjin Teda. Henan Jianye's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.45 for Tianjin Teda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Henan Jianye at home · Tianjin Teda away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Henan Jianye 26, Tianjin Teda 26.
Henan Jianye score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Tianjin Teda have let in 4 there.
Tianjin Teda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); Henan Jianye have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Henan Jianye
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at Hangzhou Greentown8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 28%
Tianjin Teda
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- at Dalian Zhixing8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.