11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Montpellier vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Montpellier 1-0 PAU.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Montpellier, 28% draw, 28% PAU — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montpellier at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier97%Draw3%PAU0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

51'
Abdel Hakim Abdallah
Julien Laporte
54'
60'
Cheikh Fall
🔁Grégory Ayemout: Daryll Benlahlou
63'
🔁Daylam Meddahout: Théo Chennahi
63'
63'
🔁Babacar Leyeout: Jeremy Sebas
71'
🔁Lorenzo Rajotout: Luan Gadegbeku
⚽Theo Sainte Luceassist: Florian Tardieu
72'
77'
🔁Hacene Benaliout: Bilal Brahimi
77'
🔁Cheikh Fallout: Tom Saettel
77'
🔁Tom Pouillyout: Mathys Tourraine
🔁Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumouout: Hichem Abderrebi
78'
Hichem Abderrebi
89'
90+3'
Luan Gadegbeku

Match stats — Montpellier vs PAU

74%Possession26%
12Shots11
4On target2
6Corners3

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 19N. MukieleM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouF
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 50V. DžodićG
  • 39J. HatchiF
  • 9Lacine Megnan-PaveF
  • 77EversonM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
Coach: Z. Camara
PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 23A. BriançonD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliF
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 18J. SebasF
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 22R. BahengD
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 10B. BrahimiM
Coach: Thierry Debes

Form going into Montpellier vs PAU

Montpellier

  • L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
  • D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Nancy14 August 2026

PAU

  • D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
  • L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier632154+111
15PAU612346-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs PAU

  • 20 March 2026PAU 0–0 MontpellierLigue 2
  • 6 December 2025Montpellier 0–1 PAULigue 2
  • 6 January 2023PAU 2–1 MontpellierCoupe de France

Leading scorers: Montpellier and PAU

Montpellier

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

PAU

  • B. Leye3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.