Montpellier vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Montpellier 1-0 PAU.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Montpellier, 28% draw, 28% PAU — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montpellier at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Montpellier vs PAU
Line-ups
- 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
- 3Naoufel El HannachD
- 15J. LaporteD
- 6Y. MouangaD
- 17T. Sainte-LuceD
- 5F. TardieuM
- 27D. MeddahM
- 18N. PaysM
- 90Gregory AyemM
- 19N. MukieleM
- 11M. CamaraF
- 32Hichem AbderrebiM
- 23Daryll BenlahlouF
- 44T. ChennahiM
- 50V. DžodiÄG
- 39J. HatchiF
- 9Lacine Megnan-PaveF
- 77EversonM
- 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 8S. BasseD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 5L. RajotM
- 7H. BenaliF
- 9B. LeyeF
- 39M. TourraineD
- 18J. SebasF
- 30E. SallesG
- 19T. SaettelF
- 22R. BahengD
- 11A. LefebvreF
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 4A. DodoteD
- 10B. BrahimiM
Form going into Montpellier vs PAU
Montpellier
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nancy14 August 2026
- D1-1Dijon8 August 2026
PAU
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
- L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
- L0-1Annecy8 August 2026
What these results say
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
- PAU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAU had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Montpellier | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs PAU
- 20 March 2026PAU 0–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 6 December 2025Montpellier 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 6 January 2023PAU 2–1 MontpellierCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Montpellier and PAU
Montpellier
GoalsAssists
- N. Pays31
- Lacine Megnan-Pave31
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Montpellier beat PAU 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Montpellier at 44%. The goal: Theo Sainte Luce 72' for Montpellier.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.