2 August 2026, 22:15 UTC

River Plate vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 1

Final score: River Plate 0-1 Rosario Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% River Plate, 19% draw, 21% Rosario Central — fair odds of 1.67, 5.26 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts River Plate at 60% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Joaquín Freitas
5'
Lautaro Rivero
10'
Fausto Vera
17'
27'
⚽N. Otamendi (OG)
34'
Emanuel Coronel
•Nicolás Otamendi
37'
Lucas Martínez Quarta
41'
🔁L. Pereyraout: T. Galvan
46'
🔁Fausto Veraout: L. Beltran
63'
65'
Ángel Di María
🔁J. Freitasout: J. Meza
67'
70'
🔁V. Pizarroout: F. Navarro
80'
Franco Ibarra
82'
🔁J. Campazout: P. Fernandez
83'
Emanuel Coronel
83'
Emanuel Coronel
83'
🔁E. Copettiout: T. Badaloni
🔁L. Riveroout: V. Lucero
84'
85'
🔁A. Di Mariaout: F. Mallo Blanco

Match stats — River Plate vs Rosario Central

65%Possession35%
25Shots12
6On target3
10Corners4
2.07xG0.57

Goals against chances

River Plate0 from 2.07 xGless than the chances were worth
Rosario Central1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

River Plate 4-2-3-1
  • 41S. BeltranG
  • 29G. MontielD
  • 28L. Martinez QuartaD
  • 30N. OtamendiD
  • 13L. RiveroD
  • 15Fausto VeraM
  • 6A. MorenoM
  • 35J. FreitasM
  • 25L. PereyraM
  • 11F. ColidioM
  • 19R. BorreF
Substitutes
  • 33E. CenturionG
  • 20G. GonzalezD
  • 24J. MezaM
  • 18L. BeltranF
  • 26T. GalvanM
  • 43V. LuceroM
  • 31F. GonzalezD
  • 44L. SilvaM
Coach: Eduardo Coudet
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. LedesmaG
  • 32E. CoronelD
  • 46I. OvandoD
  • 13G. AvilaD
  • 3A. SandezD
  • 5F. IbarraM
  • 20V. PizarroM
  • 26G. CantizanoM
  • 11A. Di MariaM
  • 8J. CampazM
  • 22E. CopettiF
Substitutes
  • 1A. WernerG
  • 31F. NavarroM
  • 39F. OviedoF
  • 19S. SegoviaM
  • 28P. FernandezM
  • 33A. SotoD
  • 15F. Mallo BlancoD
  • 2S. ZarachoD
  • 16T. BadaloniF
Coach: Jorge Almiron

Form going into River Plate vs Rosario Central

River Plate

  • L0-1away to Gimnasia La Plata29 July 2026
  • L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026

Rosario Central

  • D0-0Racing Club29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Belgrano Cordoba23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: River Plate vs Rosario Central

  • 2 August 2026River Plate 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 May 2026River Plate 1–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 February 2026Rosario Central 0–0 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 October 2025Rosario Central 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 March 2025River Plate 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 December 2024River Plate 4–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: River Plate and Rosario Central

River Plate

  • S. Driussi6 goals

Rosario Central

  • Á. Di María8 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.