River Plate
vs
Rosario Central
The model makes it 60% River Plate, 19% draw, 21% Rosario Central — fair odds of 1.67, 5.26 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: River Plate 2.47, Rosario Central 1.42.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: River Plate vs Rosario Central
- 16 May 2026River Plate 1–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 February 2026Rosario Central 0–0 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 October 2025Rosario Central 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2025River Plate 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 December 2024River Plate 4–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 April 2024River Plate 2–1 Rosario CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for River Plate against 1.42 for Rosario Central. River Plate's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.5 for Rosario Central.