River Plate vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: River Plate 0-1 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% River Plate, 19% draw, 21% Rosario Central — fair odds of 1.67, 5.26 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — River Plate vs Rosario Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 6A. MorenoM
- 35J. FreitasM
- 25L. PereyraM
- 11F. ColidioM
- 19R. BorreF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 24J. MezaM
- 18L. BeltranF
- 26T. GalvanM
- 43V. LuceroM
- 31F. GonzalezD
- 44L. SilvaM
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 26G. CantizanoM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 1A. WernerG
- 31F. NavarroM
- 39F. OviedoF
- 19S. SegoviaM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 16T. BadaloniF
Form going into River Plate vs Rosario Central
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Gimnasia La Plata29 July 2026
- L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026
Rosario Central
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Racing Club29 July 2026
- L1-2away to Belgrano Cordoba23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | River Plate | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: River Plate vs Rosario Central
- 16 May 2026River Plate 1–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 February 2026Rosario Central 0–0 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 October 2025Rosario Central 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2025River Plate 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 December 2024River Plate 4–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: River Plate and Rosario Central
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
- G. Montiel73
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosario Central won 1–0 at River Plate. The model had leaned towards a win for River Plate at 60% and given a win for Rosario Central 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: N. Otamendi (own goal) 27' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Emanuel Coronel (Rosario Central) 83'. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.57.