Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Newell's Old Boys 2-2 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Newell's Old Boys, 23% draw, 26% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 24F. EscobarD
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 17L. GiannettiD
- 28J. RussoD
- 8D. SoteloM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20F. GuchM
- 39T. RiosM
- 9M. CoccaroF
- 21G. AriasG
- 18M. E. GarciaF
- 15A. SonoraM
- 3M. LucianoD
- 29M. EspondaM
- 27L. GomezM
- 99I. RamirezF
- 25B. CabreraD
- 2I. GlavinovichD
- 1A. MonteroG
- 24D. GorositoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 32A. CostaD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 5L. ParedesM
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 19L. FloresM
- 10T. ArandaM
- 22S. VillaM
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 12L. BreyG
- 11Angel RomeroF
- 17L. LozanoD
- 21K. ZenonM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 4J. FigalD
- 9M. GimenezF
- 27M. BraidaM
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
Boca Juniors
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
- 2 August 2026Newell's Old Boys 2–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 February 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 October 2025Boca Juniors 5–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2025Newell's Old Boys 2–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 December 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 April 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–3 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.