Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Newell's Old Boys 2-2 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Newell's Old Boys, 23% draw, 26% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 24F. EscobarD
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 17L. GiannettiD
- 28J. RussoD
- 8D. SoteloM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20F. GuchM
- 39T. RiosM
- 9M. CoccaroF
- 21G. AriasG
- 18M. E. GarciaF
- 15A. SonoraM
- 3M. LucianoD
- 29M. EspondaM
- 27L. GomezM
- 99I. RamirezF
- 25B. CabreraD
- 2I. GlavinovichD
- 1A. MonteroG
- 24D. GorositoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 32A. CostaD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 5L. ParedesM
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 19L. FloresM
- 10T. ArandaM
- 22S. VillaM
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 12L. BreyG
- 11Angel RomeroF
- 17L. LozanoD
- 21K. ZenonM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 4J. FigalD
- 9M. GimenezF
- 27M. BraidaM
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
- 1 February 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 October 2025Boca Juniors 5–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2025Newell's Old Boys 2–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 December 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 April 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–3 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newell's Old Boys and Boca Juniors drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Newell's Old Boys at 51% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Ascacibar 30' for Boca Juniors, M. Coccaro 50' for Newell's Old Boys, L. Regiardo 59' for Newell's Old Boys, A. Velasco 81' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 0.54–1.62.