Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 3 · 2 August 2026, 20:00 UTC

Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors

Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario

The model makes it 51% Newell's Old Boys, 23% draw, 26% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.94, Boca Juniors 1.32.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

63%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 10%2-0 7%

Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors

  • 1 February 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 5 October 2025Boca Juniors 5–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 March 2025Newell's Old Boys 2–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 December 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 April 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–3 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 12 November 2023Boca Juniors 1–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 1.32 for Boca Juniors. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.97 for Boca Juniors.