3 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Lanus 0-1 Instituto Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Lanus, 34% draw, 38% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 3.57, 2.94 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Instituto Cordoba at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lanus2%Draw95%Instituto Cordoba3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
J. Galvan
M. Sepulveda
28'
42'
G. Cerato
🔁J. Canaleout: R. De Jesus
46'
46'
🔁J. Galvanout: F. R. Alarcon
🔁L. Besozziout: R. Carrera
61'
🔁F. N. Watsonout: D. Aquino
61'
🔁A. Wlkout: Y. Valois
65'
65'
🔁J. E. Cordoba Mosqueraout: J. Lazaro
65'
🔁M. Tisseraout: N. Guerra
75'
🔁M. Gallardoout: G. A. Lodico
🔁F. Pena Biaforeout: A. Medina
80'
86'
F. R. Alarcon
86'
🔁A. Lunaout: M. Fonseca
90'
⚽F. R. Alarconassist: G. A. Lodico

Match stats — Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba

62%Possession38%
15Shots19
3On target7
7Corners7
0.71xG1.19

Goals against chances

Lanus0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Instituto Cordoba1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 5F. Pena BiaforeM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 16M. SepulvedaM
  • 8F. N. WatsonM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 4G. PerezD
  • 39T. LaplaceM
  • 35R. De JesusD
  • 19Y. ValoisF
  • 23R. CarreraM
  • 9W. BouF
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 17A. MedinaM
Coach: Mauricio Pellegrino
Instituto Cordoba 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 26L. MosevichD
  • 30J. GalvanD
  • 44G. CeratoM
  • 55G. AbreguM
  • 15M. GallardoM
  • 3D. SosaM
  • 20J. E. Cordoba MosqueraF
  • 10A. LunaF
  • 17M. TisseraF
Substitutes
  • 35E. O. Sittaro MirandaG
  • 6F. R. AlarconD
  • 2H. De La FuenteD
  • 9F. SuarezF
  • 23A. MeliD
  • 21J. LazaroM
  • 90P. BasterM
  • 7N. GuerraF
  • 8J. AcevedoM
Coach: Diego Flores

Form going into Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba

Lanus

  • W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026

Instituto Cordoba

  • W2-1Platense30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Lanus9414118+313
1Instituto Cordoba9612106+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba

  • 3 August 2026Lanus 0–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 May 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–1 LanusCopa Argentina
  • 4 February 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–2 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 September 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 17 March 2025Lanus 4–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 December 2024Lanus 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Lanus and Instituto Cordoba

Lanus

  • D. Aquino6 goals2 assists

Instituto Cordoba

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.