Rennes
vs
Le Mans
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 26% Rennes, 25% draw, 49% Le Mans — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rennes 1.15, Le Mans 1.66.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Le Mans
- 26 October 2011Le Mans 0–0 RennesCoupe de la Ligue
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.81 against 7.17 for Le Mans. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Rennes and 1.66 for Le Mans. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.03 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Mans rate 1.06 and 0.59.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rennes against 1.66 for Le Mans. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.59 for Le Mans.