Raków Częstochowa
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 57% Raków Częstochowa, 20% draw, 23% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 2.28, Jagiellonia 1.41.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Jagiellonia
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Raków Częstochowa
No league goals recorded yet.
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.52 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Raków Częstochowa L-L; Jagiellonia W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.41 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.80 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.78 and 1.51.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jagiellonia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.41 for Jagiellonia. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.51 for Jagiellonia.