30 August 2026, 12:45 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Raków Częstochowa, 27% draw, 28% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa0%Draw1%Jagiellonia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Emreli
23'
30'
•Rodrigo Conceição
31'
⚽J. Imaz (pen)
37'
⚽N. Prelec
43'
Eryk Kozłowski
🔁D. G. Debohiout: O. Repka
46'
🔁J. C. Silvaout: M. Perovic
46'
46'
🔁J. Imazout: S. Lozano
Karol Struski
50'
⚽J. Jendrykaassist: V. Kochergin
56'
🔁K. Struskiout: O. Kwiatkowski
62'
🔁A. Molnarout: L. Diaby-Fadiga
62'
69'
🔁E. Kozlowskiout: H. Finndell
69'
🔁K. Szmytout: O. Sow
🔁F. Tudorout: A. Brorsson
71'
72'
•Sergio Lozano
76'
⚽G. Montoia (pen)
78'
⚽O. Sowassist: N. Prelec
87'
🔁N. Prelecout: Y. Sylla
89'
⚽Y. Sylla
90'
🔁R. Conceicaoout: K. Jozwiak

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia

46%Possession54%
14Shots20
4On target10
5Corners6
1.29xG4.44

Goals against chances

Raków Częstochowa2 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia5 from 4.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 88A. Molnar
Substitutes
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 21T. PienkoM
  • 22O. AbrahamM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek
Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
  • 27R. ConceicaoM
  • 11J. ImazM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 62S. PankiewiczD
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 5B. VitalD
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 8D. DrachalM
  • 9D. RallisF
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia

Raków Częstochowa

  • L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026

Jagiellonia

  • W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026
  • W4-0FC Iberia 199920 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Rangers13 August 2026
  • L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
  • W2-1Rangers6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jagiellonia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Raków Częstochowa91081221-93
10Jagiellonia84041213-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia

  • 13 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 2 November 2025Jagiellonia 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 10 May 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 10 November 2024Jagiellonia 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 10 December 2023Jagiellonia 4–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 22 July 2023Raków Częstochowa 3–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia

Raków Częstochowa

  • P. Makuch5 goals
  • M. Emreli3 goals1 assist

Jagiellonia

  • N. Prelec3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.