Monaco
vs
Marseille
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 37% Monaco, 23% draw, 40% Marseille — fair odds of 2.70, 4.35 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Monaco 1.73, Marseille 1.82.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Marseille
- 5 April 2026Monaco 2–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 14 December 2025Marseille 1–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 12 April 2025Monaco 3–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 1 December 2024Marseille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 27 January 2024Marseille 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 30 September 2023Monaco 3–2 MarseilleLigue 1
The two sides
Monaco carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.95 for Marseille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Monaco and 1.82 for Marseille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monaco rate 0.84 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marseille rate 1.30 and 1.09.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Monaco against 1.82 for Marseille. Monaco's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/1.09 for Marseille.