30 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-3 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Gornik Zabrze, 28% draw, 27% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gornik Zabrze at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gornik Zabrze97%Draw3%GKS Katowice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽I. Shkurin
40'
🔁B. Galanout: M. Wdowiak
45+1'
•Erik Jirka
🔁P. Bernardoout: J. Antiste
59'
🔁L. Sadilekout: J. Kubicki
60'
73'
Arkadiusz Jędrych
⚽K. Urbanski (pen)
75'
⚽Josemaassist: R. Janicki
76'
🔁E. Prekopout: M. Dietz
84'
89'
🔁E. Jirkaout: S. Bartlewicz
89'
🔁E. Markovicout: M. Wasielewski
🔁Peter Federicoout: Y. Ikia Dimi
90+5'
90+7'
🔁L. Klemenzout: A. Czerwinski
90+7'
🔁B. Wolskiout: K. Lukasiak
90'
⚽I. Shkurinassist: B. Nowak
90'
⚽I. Shkurinassist: A. Czerwinski

Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice

63%Possession37%
19Shots14
6On target8
13Corners4
2.5xG1.56

Goals against chances

Gornik Zabrze2 from 2.50 xGless than the chances were worth
GKS Katowice3 from 1.56 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 61M. SacekD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20JosemaD
  • 64E. JanzaD
  • 18L. SadilekM
  • 82K. UrbanskiM
  • 8P. BernardoM
  • 19Peter FedericoF
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 33M. KhlanF
Substitutes
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 21O. ZmrzlyD
  • 2P. WarczakD
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 3M. SynosD
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 28B. DonioM
  • 23S. LisethF
  • 9J. AntisteF
Coach: Michal Gasparik
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 4A. JedrychD
  • 55P. RestaD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 8B. GalanM
  • 15E. MarkovicF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 30A. CzerwinskiD
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 10M. WedrychowskiM
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 23M. WasielewskiD
  • 19K. LukasiakM
Coach: Rafal Gorak

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice

Gornik Zabrze

  • L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
  • L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
  • W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
  • D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026

GKS Katowice

  • W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Gornik Zabrze9711168+822
9GKS Katowice84041613+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice

  • 28 February 2026GKS Katowice 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 23 August 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 30 March 2025GKS Katowice 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 21 September 2024Gornik Zabrze 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 27 September 2023GKS Katowice 0–4 Gornik ZabrzeCup
  • 20 October 2022GKS Katowice 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeCup

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and GKS Katowice

Gornik Zabrze

  • Peter4 goals

GKS Katowice

  • I. Shkurin6 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.