Paris FC
vs
Nice
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 63% Paris FC, 19% draw, 18% Nice — fair odds of 1.59, 5.26 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Paris FC 2.40, Nice 1.23.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Nice
- 1 March 2026Paris FC 1–0 NiceLigue 1
- 28 September 2025Nice 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
The two sides
Paris FC carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.83 for Nice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Paris FC and 1.23 for Nice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris FC rate 1.38 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nice rate 0.88 and 0.92.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Paris FC against 1.23 for Nice. Paris FC's attack/defence rating is 1.38/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.92 for Nice.